Whether you are watching for the technical fireworks or the emotional farewells, the 2026 Winter Olympics women’s single free skating event is shaping up to be an unforgettable spectacle. Here is a breakdown of the current standings, top medal contenders, and the storylines you need to watch.
The Leaderboard: Who is Leading After the Short Program?
The short program completely reshuffled expectations, proving that under the bright Olympic lights, anything can happen. Going into Thursday’s decisive free skate, the standings are:- Ami Nakai (Japan)
- Kaori Sakamoto (Japan)
- Alysa Liu (USA)
Top Medal Contenders and Key Storylines
Ami Nakai: The 17-Year-Old Sensation
Arriving as a relative newcomer to the senior Olympic circuit, 17-year-old Ami Nakai stunned the arena by delivering a career-best short program. Skating 18th out of 29 competitors, she threw down a flawless routine highlighted by a massive triple Axel—a high-risk, high-reward jump that very few women attempt. If Nakai can manage her nerves and stamina to land her jumps cleanly in the free skate, her technical advantage could easily secure her the gold medal.Kaori Sakamoto: A Champion’s Farewell
Sitting just behind Nakai is 25-year-old Kaori Sakamoto. The three-time world champion has been the dominant force in women's figure skating since 2022. Sakamoto has confirmed that this will be her final competitive season, adding immense emotional weight to Thursday's performance. While she doesn't rely on the triple Axel, Sakamoto is armed with unmatched speed, deep edge control, and breathtaking artistry. These qualities consistently earn her elite Program Component Scores (PCS), which could easily outweigh the technical baseline of her younger competitors.Alysa Liu: Chasing American History
Currently in third place, reigning world champion Alysa Liu is carrying the hopes of a nation. Delivering a powerful and poised short program, Liu is perfectly positioned to break a grueling 20-year Olympic medal drought for the United States in women’s singles figure skating. A clean, jump-heavy free skate could push her right to the top of the podium.The Podium Spoilers
While the top three have a slight edge, they cannot afford any mistakes. Japan’s overall dominance is heavily on display in Milan, boasting three skaters in the top four, making a historic podium sweep a very real possibility. Additionally, Individual Neutral Athlete Adeliia Petrosian remains a massive threat. Known for her elite jump difficulty, Petrosian is a dangerous spoiler who could easily vault into the top three if the leaders falter.What to Watch for in the Free Skate Scoring
The dynamic of the 2026 Olympic final is heavily influenced by recent shifts in the sport:
- The Age Rule Transition: These are the first Winter Games since the ISU raised the minimum age for senior competition to 17, marking a new era that balances athlete longevity with intense technical difficulty.
- The Second-Half Bonus: Skaters are rewarded with a 1.1x base value multiplier for jumps executed in the second half of their program. Expect to see risk-heavy, backloaded routines designed to maximize Technical Element Scores (TES).
- Execution Over Everything: While quadruple jumps and triple Axels grab the headlines, Olympic judges heavily penalize step-outs and edge errors. Clean execution of a slightly easier program often beats a sloppy, high-difficulty routine.